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Ricard de Neufville
Unit II:
The Forecast is Always Wrong:
1. Cost Estimates
2. Demand Forecasts
3. Porcupine Graphs
4. Common Forecasting
Process Inherently Flawed
5. Flaw of Averages I:
The Concept
6. Flaw of Averages II:
The Consequences
Unit IV:
Parking Garage Case:
1. Introduction
2. Logic of Analysis
3. Recognising
Uncertainty, Simulation
4. Adding Flexibility
5. Design to Manage
Uncertainties
6. Flexibility is Win-Win
Unit V:
Mechanics of Simulation:
1. Concept: What Is Needed
2. Recommended Process
3. Outcomes and Target
Curves
4. Decision Rules and Unit
Closure
5. Physical Situation
6. Simulation and Value
Flexibility "on" Project
7. Value of Flex "in" Project
Unit VII:
Drivers of Flexibility
1. Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important
2. Economies of Scale
3. Discount rate and Learning Promote
4. Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers
Unit VIII:
Decision Analysis
1. Advantages
2. Decision Trees
3. Constructing Trees
4. Multistage Analysis
5. Retrospective Overview
IX:
Value of Information
1. Concept of Test
2. Value of Test
3. Expected Value of Sample Information
4. Expected Value of Perfect Information
5. Is Test Worthwhile?
Unit X:
Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation
1. Is Optimisation Possible?
2. Diminishing Marginal Utility
3. Conditions for Value Function
4. Consequences
5. There's No Valid Group Utility
6. Dominated Solutions
7. Robustness and Take-aways
Unit XI:
De-Salt and LNG Cases
1. De-Salt Plant Australia
2. Introduction
3. Initial Analysis
4. Learning effects
5. Final Analysis
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